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State-independent importance sampling for estimating large deviation probabilities in heavy-tailed random walks

机译:独立于状态的重要性抽样,用于估计重尾随机游走中的大偏差概率

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Efficient simulation of rare events involving sums of heavy-tailed random variables has been an active research area in applied probability over the last fifteen years. These rare events arise in many applications including telecommunications, computer and communication networks, insurance and finance. These problems are viewed as challenging, since large deviations theory inspired and exponential twisting based importance sampling distributions that work well for rare events involving sums of light tailed random variables fail in these settings. Moreover, there exist negative results suggesting that state-independent importance sampling methods that work well in light-tailed settings fail for certain rare events involving sums of heavy-tailed random variables. This has led to the development of growing literature for efficiently simulating such events using more nuanced, and in many cases, computationally demanding state-dependent importance sampling methods. In this article we shed new light on this issue by observing that simpler state-independent exponential twisting based importance sampling methods, suitably adjusted in the tails, can provide strongly efficient algorithms to estimate such rare event probabilities. Specifically, we develop strongly efficient state-independent importance sampling algorithms for the classical large deviations probability that sums of independent, identically distributed random variables with regularly varying tails exceed an increasing threshold both in the case where the number of random variables increases to infinity and when it is fixed.
机译:在过去的十五年中,涉及重尾随机变量之和的罕见事件的有效模拟一直是应用概率研究的活跃领域。这些罕见事件发生在许多应用中,包括电信,计算机和通信网络,保险和金融。这些问题被视为具有挑战性的,因为大偏差理论启发了人们,并且基于指数扭曲的重要性采样分布在这些情况下失败了,这些分布对于涉及轻尾随机变量之和的罕见事件非常有效。此外,存在负面结果,表明在轻尾环境中运行良好的状态独立重要性采样方法对于涉及重尾随机变量之和的某些罕见事件失败。这导致了越来越多的文献的发展,这些文献使用更细微的,在许多情况下需要计算的,取决于状态的重要性抽样方法来有效地模拟此类事件。在本文中,我们通过观察更简单的,与状态无关的基于指数扭曲的重要性采样方法(在尾部进行了适当调整)可以提供强大的高效算法来估算此类罕见事件概率,从而对此问题有了新的认识。具体来说,我们针对经典的大偏差概率开发了高效高效的状态无关性重要性采样算法,该概率大的概率是:在随机变量的数量增加到无穷大的情况下以及当它是固定的。

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