Research on Relation of Arable Land and Grain Yield based on VAR Model in China

摘要

Arable land protection concerns food security. The food supply is not only requirements of people living but the important factor of social stability in China. Chinese government determined the bottom line for the preservation of arable land: 120 million hectares. In the paper, there is an empirical research on relation of arable land and grain yield from 1983-2007 based on VAR model. Results show that the equilibrium relation that 1% increase in arable land results in 12.59% grain yield exists between the two variables in the long run. On the other hand, arable land area has no evident relation with grain yield in the short term.