Simulation of HIV/AIDS Epidemic in a Community

摘要

we present computer simulation of a mathematical model for spread of HIV/AIDS in a community. The model divides the HIV positive people into two categories, namely those who are HIV positive but have not yet developed AIDS, and those who have AIDS. The third component in the model is the number of HIV negative individuals. We show that for sufficiently small values of the contact parameter, this disease can be wiped out from the society and that for higher values of the contact parameter, the disease becomes endemic. We exhibit limit cycle solutions of this system for still larger values of the contact parameter. The predictions of the model are compared with the actual number of HIV positive people in the United States. The agreement is very good.