Systems-Based Portfolio Evaluation: Diagnostic Benefits and Methodological Challenges

摘要

This paper reports on initial research conducted by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) to understand and measure synergies among its portfolio of New York Energy $mart~(SM) energy efficiency programs. Synergy can be said to exist if the total contributions of all the energy efficiency programs designed to achieve public policy goals is more than the sum of the contributions of the individual programs. Two research approaches are described. One approach focuses on managing program portfolios to yield synergies. It is argued that NYSERDA program managers need to apply a set of ten systems principles to create necessary conditions for synergy to take place within the program portfolio. A preliminary program portfolio and organization assessment suggests that these principles are being met. The second research approach focuses on measuring synergy quantitatively. Several concepts to achieve this challenging task are presented. Because the majority of the programs under study have only recently been implemented, data were not available to rigorously test for synergy. Nonetheless, in this paper, the authors identify a wide range of program activities and market transformation data in the residential energy-efficient lighting market that suggests that synergies are taking place among programs in this market sector. This paper concludes with an identification of some next steps to assessing synergy.