Solidifying the Foundation of Savings: A Review of NYSERDA's Methodology for Estimating Energy Benefits, One Kilowatthour at a Time

摘要

This paper summarizes the review of ten of the largest New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) System Benefits Charge (SBC)-funded programs to assess the reasonableness of methodologies used to estimate program-level electricity (kWh) savings and peak demand (kW) reductions. Two of these program assessments are considered in detail. Assessment of the ten programs has yielded defensible and informative results at significantly lower costs when compared to more traditional program impact evaluations. Each program's review includes the following: 1. NYSERDA Program Overview 2. Review of Savings Methodology in terms of: a. kWh Savings b. Measure Life c. Demand Reduction (kW) 3. Summary of Findings and Recommendations A key element of the review is identification and assessment of studies conducted by other organizations on similar programs in order to verify algorithm and assumption reasonableness. By comparing NYSERDA's methods for estimating savings from specific measures and programs to the methods employed by other groups, the review establishes if NYSERDA's estimating conventions are considered reasonable. Reasonable in this context is defined as being in-line with common industry practices and procedures. This review also includes interviewing NYSERDA staff and contractors from the identified programs, where appropriate, to clarify their estimating methods and to better understand underlying assumptions. Finally, this paper identifies critical items for future data collection that will improve the accuracy of key savings estimates.