The Macro Risk Model: An Early Warning Tool for Software-Intensive Systems Projects

摘要

The Macro Risk Model is a tool for early detection and quantification of project risks associated with Software-Intensive Systems (SIS). It has been calibrated and validated against detailed case studies. Structured questions guide a user in rating evidence and risk impacts with respect to critical project success factors. It provides color-coded risk exposures, and allows for rationale and supporting artifacts. This paper describes the model and the basis of its risk evaluation methods, it reviews case studies of NASA exploration mission failures with respect to the model, it discusses a Delphi consensus-seeking process that was used to analyze factors affecting model accuracy and to calibrate the model, and compares the model to other risk approaches.