Air Transportation Demand and Economic Growth in Brazil A Time Series Analysis

摘要

Demand forecasting is the first step for an efficient planning in the civil aviation system.rnGreat forecasting mistakes can lead to undesirable costs and low service level. This paperrnaims to contribute providing an appropriate econometric approach which can be used as inputrnfor future researches involving time series analysis in our field. We investigate airrntransportation demand (PAX) and economic growth (GDP) relations in 1966-2006 period forrnBrazil. We identify series stationarity features and existence of long-run equilibrium betweenrnvariables to work in a VAR-VECM environment. The objective is to investigate dynamicrnbehavior through impulse-response functions and variance decomposition. We also addressrncausality issues through Granger tests. Our findings indicate first order integrated series andrncointegration. Impulse-response analysis suggests a strong positive reaction of PAX to arnshock on GDP. On the other hand, GDP reacts to a shock on PAX in a slower moderated pathrnwith a meaningful long run effect. We interpret this as evidence of civil aviation multiplierrneffect on economy. Furthermore, there is evidence favoring Granger-causality in GDP-PAXrndirection, reinforcing GDP importance on air transportation demand forecasting. Robustnessrnanalysis confirms our initial findings. These results are useful for planning and should be usedrnas inputs by air transportation sector policymakers.