Spatial Time Series Analysis in CUSTA and NAFTA's Trade Growth Effects

摘要

The NAFTA and CUSTA had trade growth effects on the United States Canada and Mexico, but the studies about how the effects spreaded and how long it sustained were still very few. With regard to research in this area would help developing countries who participate in regional economic integration process to understand the process and time of the trade incrasing effects, and will be helpful to make the necessary adjustments to the domestic industrial structure and trade policy. In this paper, trade map and the spatial time series model are adopted to investigate the changes in United States, Canada and Mexico's imports from the year 1989 to 2006, in order to reveal the space evolution of the trade growth effects. The results showed that, trade maps can explain the evolution and duration of the effects of regional economic integration, and can be effectively explained that the evolution of the effects is indeed related to the economic and trade environment.