Vulnerability analysis for transmission lines: Framework and methodology

摘要

A blackout usually starts with the failure of electrical power equipment, especially transmission lines. However, the fault probability of a transmission line is often assumed to have a specific value in the existing risk analysis, regardless of the complicated conditions and effectiveness. In this paper, we first decompose the transmission line risk sources into six components: line swaying, thunderstorms, exogenic force, equipment failure, human accident and wildfires. Secondly, the transmission line is compartmentalized into several monitor functioning areas according to geographical environment and statistic characteristics. Thirdly, a new framework and methodology of vulnerability analysis based on various data resources are presented. The Bayesian theorem is next used to analyze the vulnerabilities of transmission lines. Finally, simulations and experiments are employed to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method.