GROWTH DETERMINANTS OF POLAND'S ECONOMIC POTENTIAL

摘要

A new long-term annual W8-D model of the Polish economy was constructed. Its core consists of an extended Cobb-Douglas production function aimed at generating potential GDP and TFP. TFP growth was endogenized showing the impact of domestic and transferred foreign R&D capital and human capital. The paper shows parameter estimates of the production function for Poland (sample 1966-1998). Potential GDP was calculated. The impact of primary production factors was decisive for its growth. TFP growth rates for the transition period explain 10-30% of the potential GDP increase only. The total impact of R&D amounts to nearly 3/4 of the TFP increase, imported technology being decisive, whereas the human capital impact stays below 1/4 TFP increase.