Integrating intensity–duration-based rainfall threshold and antecedent rainfall-based probability estimate towards generating early warning for rainfall-induced landslides in parts of the Garhwal Himalaya, India

摘要

In order to generate early warning for landslides, it is necessary to address the spatial and temporal aspects of slope failure. The present study deals with the temporal dimension of slope failures taking into account the most widespread and frequent triggering factor, i.e. rainfall, along the National Highway-58 from Rishikesh to Mana in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Using the post-processed threehourly rainfall intensity and duration values from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis and the time-tagged landslide records along this route, an intensity–duration (I–D)-based threshold has been derived as I=58.7D~(?1.12) for the rainfall-triggered landslides. The validation of the I–D threshold has shown 81.6% accuracy for landslides which occurred in 2005 and 2006. From this result, it can be inferred that landslides in the study area can be initiated by continuous rainfall of over 12h with about 4-mm/h intensity. Using the mean annual precipitation, a normalized intensity–duration relation of NI=0.0612D~(?1.17) has also been derived. In order to account for the influence of the antecedent rainfall in slope failure initiation, the daily, 3-day cumulative, and 15- and 30-day antecedent rainfall values associated with landslides had been subjected to binary logistic regression using landslide as the dichotomous dependent variable. The logistic regression retained the daily, 3-day cumulative and 30-day antecedent rainfall values as significant predictors influencing slope failure. This model has been validated through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis using a set of samples which had not been used in the model building; an accuracy of 95.1% has been obtained. Cross-validation of I–D-based thresholding and antecedent rainfall-based probability estimation with slope failure initiation shows 81.9% conformity between the two in correctly predicting slope stability. Using the I–D-based threshold and the antecedent rainfall-based regression model, early warning can be generated for moderate to high landslide-susceptible areas (which can be delineated using spatial integration of preconditioning factors). Temporal predictions where both the methods converge indicate higher chances of slope failures for areas predisposed to instability due to unfavourable geoenvironmental and topographic parameters and qualify for enhanced slope failure warning. This method can be verified for further rainfall seasons and can also be refined progressively with finer resolutions (spatial and temporal) of rainfall intensity and multiple rain gauge stations covering a larger spatial extent.