Effects of experience and uncertainty during dynamic decision making

摘要

The decision response times in a dynamic tactical scenario in which participants interacted with a virtual command-post environment was investigated. Fifty-two Marines with varying amounts of command-post experience assessed the situation as it developed, determined tactical leverage points, formed a plan of action, and submitted battle orders. Two scenarios were studied-each differed in the level of certainty in the information provided. The tactical decision process was modeled and analyzed in the following sequential, cognitive stages: situation assessment, course of action selection, course of action execution. Results show that the time required to assess the situation was significantly longer (p <0.05), for the high-experience group than the low-experience group. However, once the assessment was complete, the selection of a course of action (COA) was significantly faster for the high-experience group than the low-experience group. In addition, COA selection under conditions of low certainty was significantly longer than under conditions of high certainty. Time required for COA execution indicated a significant main effect of experience (p <0.05), a main effect of task certainty approaching statistical significance (p = 0.067), and a statistically significant interaction (p <0.05). These results indicate that the time needed to execute the COA, once determined, is significantly less for the highly experienced individuals under conditions of low certainty. However, under the conditions of high certainty, no statistically significant time differences were found based upon the experience level. The high-experience group was significantly more accurate than the low-experience group for developing an appropriate COA.