Toward Improved Solar Irradiance Forecasts: a Simulation of Deep Planetary Boundary Layer with Scattered Clouds Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

摘要

Accurate forecasts of solar irradiance are required for electric utilities to economically integrate substantial amounts of solar power into their power generation portfolios. A common failing of numerical weather models is the prediction of scattered clouds at the top of deep PBL which are generally difficult to be resolved due to complicated processes in the planetary boundary layer. We improved turbulence parameterization for better predicting solar irradiance during the scattered clouds' events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Sensitivity tests show that increasing the exchange coefficient leads to enhanced vertical mixing and a deeper mixed layer. At the top of mixed layer, an adiabatically ascending air parcel achieved the water vapor saturation and finally scattered cloud is generated.