Methods and Systems for Optical Flow Modeling Applications for Wind and Solar Irradiance Forecasting

摘要

A method of forecasting cloud motion: gathering a time-series of satellite imagery; transforming the time-series of satellite imagery into a cloudiness index image by establishing an upper and lower limit of visible pixel values for time t; calculating the cloudiness index at each pixel location for time t to provide a cloudiness index image; applying optical flow modeling to the cloudiness index image by assuming pixel value constancy across time; assuming motion to be small and approximating the motion with a Taylor series; assuming vector field is smooth locally; selecting all pixels within d distance of location n with the same prior vector field (m*m pixels); solving system of m*m equations in the least square sense; repeat at multiple resolutions; and calculating cloud motion vectors from multiple resolution vector fields; applying the cloud motion vectors to the cloudiness index image to predict future cloud position and intensity.