BG/NBD模型的手机阅读业务客户价值预测实证研究

摘要

Customer value prediction is mainly about forecasting the customers' consumption will. It aims at undertaking personalized marketing to those real loyal users. The Service Provide can enhance the overall business volume by promptly and accurately analyzing the customers’ consumption will and providing personalized service with the method of Customer Value Prediction. This paper carries on the empirical research to validate applicability of the BG/NBD model in personalized marketing of mobile reading customers, based on the model theory and combined with mobile reading users’ data.%　　客户价值预测主要是对客户的消费意愿进行预测，找出真正的忠诚用户群，从而有针对性地进行营销。企业通过有效地客户价值预测，及时准确地掌握用户的消费意愿，提供针对性的服务，从而提升整体业务量。以Beta-Geometric/Negative Binomial Distribution (BG/NBD)模型为基础，结合手机阅读用户数据进行客户价值预测的实证研究，验证了该模型在手机阅读个性化营销方面的适用性。