Offshore Consequence Analysis Using Grid-Based Approach

摘要

Consequence analysis involves a suite of models, such as release, individual fire/explosion, radiation, overpressure, smoke & toxicity, human impact, and missile impact models. A wide range of consequence models are available in the literature to carry out such an analysis. Recently efforts have been made to revise the models, including: i) Fire models: Existing fire models have been reviewed and the ones most suitable for offshore conditions were selected; ii) Overpressure impact model: A model has been developed to quantify the overpressure effects from fires to investigate the possible damage from the hot combustion gases released in highly confined compartments; iii) Radiation model: Instead of a point/area model, a multipoint grid-based model has been adopted for better modeling and analysis of radiation heat flux consequences, and iv) Missile model: a novel probabilistic model was developed to analyze the missile impact on people and equipment in a confined process area. Novel elements introduced in this work are the concept of a vulnerable area, effective range interval, effective orientation interval, and effective trajectory interval. In this paper, we have revisited our previously proposed grid-based approach for consequence analysis for offshore process operation. A comparison of grid-based approach results with the ones used in commercial software is also briefly discussed.