Estimation of the Reproduction Number for Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) 2009 in China

摘要

In this paper, we use a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model to describe the dynamics of influenza A (H1N1) in mainland China. First, we develop a method for estimating the reproduction number R from the exponential growth rate r of the cumulative incidence data which gives an estimate of the R value as 1.55. This method is then extended to estimate the time-dependent effective reproduction number Rt from the weekly case-reporting data. Rt fluctuates significantly during the epidemic, showing a decreasing trend as quarantine and vaccination take effect, and it eventually drops below 1 by the end of 2009. Our modeling results suggest that the early implementation of intervention strategies were vital in preventing large-scale outbreaks of H1N1 disease in China in 2009.