摘要：
提出了基于多智能体的城镇家庭用水量模拟模型(MA-UHWDS),通过构造不同发展情景,对家庭用水量变化趋势及其影响因素进行了分析.以青岛市为实证城市,采用2003—2012年统计资料,计算分析了居民用水边际消费倾向、基本用水需求和不同收入户人均用水量,并对不同情景下2013—2022年各类收入户人均用水量和城镇家庭用水总量进行了定量模拟预测分析.结果表明:2003—2012年中,城镇家庭平均水费支出占总消费支出的比重仅为0.395%,易造成居民节水意识淡薄,最低收入户人均用水量除2008年外均低于基本需水量,而最高收入户平均超过基本需水量14.16 m3,水价改革需综合考虑低收入家庭的支付能力和高收入家庭的过度用水;2022年7类收入户在水价高增长收入低增长情景下的人均用水量与在水价低增长收入高增长情景相比下,分别减少了16.7 %、18.4 %、18.1 %、16.1 %、15.0 %、17.8 %和13.8 %,水价和收入会明显影响家庭用水量.MA-UHWDS为区域用水总量调控提供了新的研究思路和工具.%In this paper, a model named MA-UHWDS, which can analyze the variation trend and influ?ence factors of urban household water demand by constructing different development scenarios, is proposed for the control objective of total water line and the urban household water shortage. The model is applied in Qingdao City, first to calculate the marginal propensity to consume water, basic water demand, and per capita water consumption of different income households with statistics from 2003 to 2012, then simulation and prediction of the per capita water consumption and total urban household water demand from 2013 to 2022 in different scenarios are analyzed quantitatively. The results indicate that average share of expendi?ture for water use in living expenditure from 2003 to 2012 is just 0.395%, and the shares are so small that the public awareness on water conservation is weak;the per capita water consumption of the lowest in?come household from 2003 to 2012 are all below the basic water demand except 2008, while the highest is 14.16 m3 higher than that, therefore both the payment ability of the low income household and the over?use of the high should be considered in the reform of water price;compared with the scenario of PlIhSlEl in 2022, the per capita water demand of seven kinds of income households in that of PlIhSlEl decrease 16.7%,18.4%,18.1%,16.1%,15.0%,17.8% and 13.8%,respectively,so water price and disposable in?come could obviously impact the household water demand. MA-UHWDS provides new research idea and tool for total water consumption control.
