The influence of temporal uncertainty of deterioration on life-cycle management of structures

摘要

In the life-cycle management of infrastructure systems, the decisions regarding the time and frequency of inspection, maintenance and replacement are confounded by sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with deterioration of the structural resistance. To account for these uncertainties, probabilistic models of deterioration have been developed under two broad categories, namely the random variable model and the stochastic process model. This paper presents a conceptual exposition of these two models and highlights their profound implications on age-based and condition-based preventive maintenance policies. The stochastic gamma process model of deterioration proposed here is more versatile than the random rate model commonly used in structural reliability literature.