Risk identification and assessment for engineering procurement construction management projects using fuzzy set theory

摘要

Considerable work has been carried out on risk qualitative and quantitative assessment but far less on risk identification. This paper introduces a newly developed method for risk identification, based on micro risk breakdown structure and newly introduced identification procedure called preventive root cause and effective remedial. It also introduces a risk responsibility matrix that distributes the responsibilities associated with each risk among project stakeholders and introduces a newly developed method for qualitative and quantitative assessment of each item using fuzzy set and fuzzy probability theories. Output of the proposed assessment method is pre-mitigation contingency of each risk which represents a quantitative indicator for decision making whether to mitigate or not the risk being considered. Two case studies and one numerical example are presented to demonstrate the applicability and illustrate the essential features of proposed identification, allocation, and assessment methods.