Little change in IGC grain outlook for 2010/11

摘要

In its January 2011 "Grain Market Report", the International Grains Council (IGC) reports that world grain supplies are forecast to tighten in 2010/11 but notes that its outlook is little changed from two months ago. World grain production is expected to decline by 3.8% to 1,726 million tonnes: the wheat estimate is lifted on better than expected southern hemisphere crops but the maize total is cut. By far the biggest fall in grain output was in drought-affected Russia, with big reductions too in the EU, US, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. A further rise in world grain consumption is forecast in 2010/11 to 1,787 million tonnes. However, at 1.4%, the rise is flatter than in recent years. The expansion in industrial use has slowed markedly, especially in the US ethanol sector, although recent use there has been higher than anticipated. Total feed use will only rise moderately this year. The forecast fall in global carryover stocks of 62 million tonnes to 342 million tonnes mirrors the reduction in the major grain exporters, with big declines in Canada, the EU, Russia and the US.