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The relative importance of deforestation, precipitation change, and temperature sensitivity in determining the future distributions and diversity of Amazonian plant species.

机译:在确定亚马逊河植物物种的未来分布和多样性方面,森林砍伐,降水变化和温度敏感性的相对重要性。

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摘要

Tropical forests are threatened by many human disturbances - two of the most important of which are deforestation and climate change. To mitigate the impacts of these disturbances, it is important to understand their potential effects on the distributions of species. In the tropics, such understanding has been hindered by poor knowledge of the current distributions and range limits of most species. Here, we use herbarium collection records to model the current and future distributions of ca. 3000 Amazonian plant species. We project these distributions into the future under a range of different scenarios related to the magnitude of climate change and extent of deforestation as well as the response of species to changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric concentrations of CO2. We find that the future of Amazonian diversity will be dependant primarily on the ability of species to tolerate or adapt to rising temperatures. If the thermal niches of tropical plant species are fixed and incapable of expanding under rapid warming, then the negative effects of climate change will overshadow the effects of deforestation, greatly reducing the area of suitable habitat available to most species and potentially leading to massive losses of biodiversity throughout the Amazon. If tropical species are generally capable of tolerating warmer temperatures, rates of habitat loss will be greatly reduced but many parts of Amazonia may still experience rapid losses of diversity, with the effects of enhanced seasonal water stress being similar in magnitude to the effects of deforestation.
机译:热带森林受到许多人为干扰的威胁,其中最重要的两个是森林砍伐和气候变化。为了减轻这些干扰的影响,重要的是了解它们对物种分布的潜在影响。在热带地区,由于对大多数物种的当前分布和范围限制的了解不足,阻碍了这种理解。在这里,我们使用植物标本室收集记录来模拟ca的当前和将来分布。 3000种亚马逊植物。我们将在一系列与气候变化和森林砍伐程度以及物种对温度,降水和CO 2 。我们发现,亚马逊地区多样性的未来将主要取决于物种对温度上升的耐受或适应能力。如果热带植物物种的热位固定且无法在迅速变暖的情况下扩展,那么气候变化的负面影响将掩盖森林砍伐的影响,从而大大减少大多数物种可利用的适宜栖息地的面积,并有可能导致森林的大量丧失整个亚马逊地区的生物多样性。如果热带物种通常能够承受较高的温度,则栖息地丧失的速度将大大降低,但亚马逊地区的许多地区仍可能会迅速丧失多样性,季节性水胁迫加剧的影响与森林砍伐的影响相似。

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