ARIMA VERSUS ARIMAX MODELLING FOR SUGARCANE YIELDPREDICTION IN HARYANA

摘要

An efficient crop forecasting infrastructure is pre-requisite for information system about food supply, especially export-import policies, procurement and price-fixation. The present study dealt with the development of ARIMA and ARIMAX models for sugarcane yield prediction in Karnal, Ambala and Kurukshetra districts of Haryana. The weather data over the crop growth period were utilized as input series along with the sugarcane yield for building the ARIMAX models. The predictive performance(s) of thecontending models were observed in terms of the percent deviations of sugarcane yield forecasts in relation to the real-time yield(s) and root mean square error(s) as well. The ARIMAX models performed well with lower error metrics as compared tome ARIMAmodels in all time regimes.