Forecasting Port Cargo Throughput Based on Grey Wave Forecasting Model with Generalized Contour Lines

摘要

Port cargo throughput is an important indicator of economic trend for a region or country. Port cargo throughput forecasting is pivotal to port managers which can help them arrange productivity reasonably. As port cargo throughput fluctuates and sometimes increases over time, this paper proposes a grey wave forecasting model with generalized contour lines to forecast it. The novel model identifies the slope of contour lines through a least square estimation with a deterministic time trend, chooses a set of paralleled lines between the minimum and maximum values of original data series as the generalized contour lines and finally establishes GM(1,1) models based on the contour time sequences. Using cargo throughput data of Chinese large-scale port, the empirical result shows the advantage of grey wave forecasting model with generalized contour lines.