MaxEnt modeling to predict current and future distributions of Batocera lineolata (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) under climate change in China

摘要

Climate warming extends insect distribution areas, increases voltinism and makes pest prevention and control more difficult. The MaxEnt ecological niche modeling software was used to simulate Batocera lineolata distribution and predict potential range changes under climate change scenarios. Future B. lineolata distribution was modeled for three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to predict suitable regions in the 2050s and 2070s. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to estimate model precision and a jackknife test was used to screen the dominant environmental variables. The results show that the area under the curve of the B. lineolata distribution model could reach an ?Excellent? standard. Under current climate conditions, the most suitable region for B. lineolata is 25.5?40.5?N, 102?120?E, distributed discontinuously from south to north and covering an area of 47.17 ? 10(4) km(2). For predicted future distribution, except for a decrease in moderately suitable regions under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the 2050s and RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 in the 2070s, other suitable regions are likely to extend; highly suitable regions would increase continuously. This research provides a theoretical basis to improve pest management strategies regarding B. lineolata to face the challenge of climate change.