Chapter 4--Prices

摘要

As the Chinese economy turned a comer, underlying demand for steel lifted and sentiment improved through Q4, driving iron ore prices up significantly from an almost 3-year low in September. A tighter supply-side picture has also supported the most recent price hikes. We expect the higher price range to be sustained in the short term as seasonal production cuts set in and restocking at Chinese mills continues ahead of Chinese New Year, boosting demand. Strong q/q consumption growth in Q2 2013 is forecast to keep prices firm. By 2017, prices are set to reach just under $100/t, which CRU deems to be an elevated price by historic standards. At this point, a large influx of low cost supply is expected to have reached the seaborne market, predominantly from the majors.