Long-term forecasting of industrial CO2 emissions in 31 provinces of China

摘要

Forecasting CO2 emissions is the bases of making environmental planning and ecological strategy decisions. This paper constructed a multi-sector intertemporal optimization model to forecast the CO2 emission trends of 14 industrial departments in 31 provinces of China from 2012 to 2050. The results indicate that (1) the energy efficiency level of each province will be improved continuously under the influence of technology progress, and CO2 emissions in most provinces will reach the peak during the forecast period. (2) CO2 emissions of metal-manufacturing industries are the highest in all provinces, and the emissions of transportation service industries, construction industries, and other service industries show a trend of gradual increase from west to east. (3) Under the influence of the capital and technology, CO2 emissions caused by transportation service industries in eastern provinces will reach the peak earlier than those in central and western regions. (4) Combined with the industrial structure and the technical input level, the chemical industries in the western provinces have a great potential for emission reduction. Moreover, construction and transportation industries in the eastern and central provinces have a great potential for emission reduction.