Suitable habitat prediction of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) and its implications for conservation in Baihe Nature Reserve, Sichuan, China

摘要

As an endemic primate species with one of the highest priorities in wildlife conservation in China, Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) have undergone a sharp decline and range reduction in recent centuries. Here, we used maximum entropy modelling (MaxEnt) integrated with four types of environmental variables, including three biological climate variables (Bio17, precipitation of the driest quarter; Bio6, min. temperature of the coldest month; and Bio2, mean diurnal range), three topographic variables (altitude, slope, and aspect), two anthropogenic variables (Human Footprint Index and human disturbance), and three vegetation-related variables (enhanced vegetation index, normalized difference vegetation index, and Wet Index) to identify the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys in Baihe Nature Reserve (BNR), which is located in the Minshan Mountains. The average training AUC of our model performance is 0.929 +/- 0.003. The model predicted 9.6 km(2) of high suitability habitats and 14.1 km(2) of moderate suitability habitats for Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys, adding up to only 11.7% of the total area of concern for the study in the BNR. The top four variables ranked in the model (altitude, Human Footprint Index, human disturbance, and Bio17) accounted for relative gain contributions of 23.3%, 19.3%, 14.2%, and 13.4%, respectively. The predicted suitable habitats were confined to an altitude range of 1971-3198 m, Human Footprint Index of mainly 3-5 values, low human disturbance (mainly livestock), and precipitation of the driest (or coldest) quarter of 9-22 mm. Additionally, the suitable habitats were mainly distributed in the core zone (36.1%), buffer zone (26.8%), and experimental zone (29.5%). The remaining habitats (7.6%) were distributed in the 0.5-km buffer zone of the reserve border. The predicted suitable habitats indicated limited suitable habitat space for the Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys, with most of the suitable habitat distributed outside the core zone in the BNR. Our findings highlighted that human activities in all three functional zones could be the most negative factor on suitable habitat distribution of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys in the BNR.