Target selection and pharma industry productivity: what can we learn from technology S-curve theory?

摘要

The number of new drug approvals per annum has been decreasing regularly over the past decade, and changes made 12 to 15 years ago to the research and development approach of the pharmaceutical industry may have contributed to this fall in productivity. In particular, the rapid switch at that time away from an 'observation-led' approach toward a 'hypothesis-led' approach to target selection may be a key contributing factor to this issue. The strengths and weaknesses of both approaches are analyzed herein, and it is suggested that unsolved weaknesses in both approaches are holding back the productivity of the pharmaceutical/biotechnology industry.