Assessing the stability of the LNG supply in the Asia Pacific region

摘要

The Asia Pacific (AP) region has experienced huge growth in the use and trade of LNG during the last decade, which is a reflection of the overall region's policies towards low-carbon development. Japan, South Korea, Mainland China, Taiwan and India (JKCTI) are the top five importers and consumers of LNG in the world. A holistic network system stability indicator, considering various risk factors, has been constructed based on ecological network analysis (ENA) to assess the stability of LNG supplies in each of the JKCTI countries and in the overall AP region. The research revealed that the increase in the number of LNG suppliers and improvements (higher values) of the risk factors have enhanced the status of the stability of LNG supplies. A comparative ranking of the overall levels of natural gas supply security was estimated and found that Mainland China is the leader within the AP region, followed by India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Furthermore, the reliability of the LNG suppliers in terms of sharing their maximum LNG supplying capacity in each of the JKCTI countries and AP region was also estimated. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.