Dynamics and Coastal Effects of Tsunamis Generated by Asteroids Impacting the Black Sea

摘要

Two-dimensional (2D) and one-dimensional (1D) shallow-water models are used to evaluate the seashore effects of the tsunami generated by an asteroid impacting the western regions of the Black Sea about 208 km from the coast. The tsunami's speed and the effects on the coastal regions depend on many factors, among which the most important is asteroid size. The tsunami generated by a 250-m asteroid reaches the nearest land location in 24 min and needs about 2 h to arrive at all Black Sea coast. The run-up value is about 7 m high on the Turkish and Crimean coasts. In the western Black Sea regions the wave height is two or three times smaller. The run-up values strongly depend on bathymetry and topography peculiarities. The run-in value in case of the tsunami generated by a 1,000-m asteroid is up to eight times larger than in case of a 250-m impactor, depending on location. The results reported herein are upper limit values. In case of the 250-m asteroid, the real wave amplitude may be up to two times smaller. The uncertainty factor decreases in case of larger asteroids. Ways of diminishing the social consequences are briefly discussed.