摘要:巴尔干在中欧关系中具有地缘战略地位,是"一带一路"倡议的核心地区之一.从尽可能广泛的意义考察巴尔干国家的话,从政治上来看西巴尔干可以被挑出来作为次区域——西巴尔干国家不是欧盟成员国;但从经济上看,它们与其他国家(希腊、克罗地亚、斯洛文尼亚、保加利亚和罗马尼亚)相比,是比较贫穷的国家,人均国内生产总值只有欧盟平均水平的1/3.本文旨在分析"一带一路"背景下中国与西巴尔干国家经济合作的前景,重点分析北马其顿的情况.本文将分析北马其顿对经济合作的最初预期、合作的现状和未来的可能发展,并回答"一带一路"建设是否实现了北马其顿经济合作的预期.本文的额外价值在于,运用理性选择理论对以下假设进行验证或证伪:尽管"一带一路"倡议和"17+1"合作启动以来,中国和北马其顿的经济合作有所加强,但其仍存巨大潜力尚未开发.根据理性选择理论,利益优先于价值,"个体在约束下采取行动以最大化其预期效用".(Pollack,M.2006)本文着重分析了中国和北马其顿共和国在"一带一路"框架内开展合作的主要动因.文章认为,在国内政治、国内经济规模和结构以及欧盟成员国身份等诸多制约因素的影响下,北马其顿国内两党间存在着利益不匹配.因此,任何一方都不能使其利益最大化,从而导致幻想破灭和合作动机的减少.文章分析了造成这一局面的根本原因,并以主要调查结果和结论为基础,对中国和北马其顿两国重振合作、增进互利提出了几点建议.;The Balkans,with its geostrategic position on the EU-China pathway,is one of the core regions in the design of the One Belt One Road Initiative(BRI).Within the Balkan countries,considered in the broadest possible sense,the Western Balkans(WB)can be singled out as a sub-region from a political point of view—Westernn Balkan countries are not EU member states,but also from an economic point of view—they are generally poorer countries when compared to the others(Greece,Croatia,Slovenia,Bulgaria and Romania),with an average GDP per capita amounting to only 1/3 from the EU's average.This paper aims to analyze the prospects for economic cooperation between China and the Western Balkans in the context of the BRI,focusing particularly on the case of the Republic of North Macedonia.It will analyze the initial expectations for economic cooperation,the current state of play and possible future developments in order to provide an answer to the question:has the BRI fulfilled the expectations of the Republic of North Macedonia in terms of economic cooperation?The added value of this paper is the application of the rational choice theory to verify or falsify the following hypothesis:although the economic cooperation between China and the Republic of North Macedonia improved since the launch of the BRI and 17+1 forum,there is significant potential that remains untapped.According to the rational choice theory,interests take precedence over values and"individuals act to maximize their expected utility subject to constraints"(Pollack,M.2006).This article focuses on the specific economic interests of China and the Republic of North Macedonia as main drivers behind the rationale for their cooperation within the framework of the BRI.It argues that under the influence of several constraints,namely domestic politics,size and structure of the domestic economy and EU membership,there is a mismatch between the interests of the two parties.Thus,neither side can maximize their benefit,which in turn leads to disenchantment and reduced incentives for cooperation.The paper examines the underlying reasons for this situation and,using the main findings and conclusions as basis,it proposes several recommendations for both China and the Republic of North Macedonia to reinvigorate their cooperation and increase mutual benefit.