Using direct normal irradiance models and utility electrical loading to assess benefit of a concentrating solar power plant

摘要

The objective of this paper was to determine if three different direct normal irradiance (DNI) models were sufficiently accurate to determine if concentrating solar power (CSP) plants could meet the utility electrical load. DNI data were measured at three different laboratories in the United States and compared with DNI calculated by three DNI models. In addition, utility electrical loading data were obtained for all three locations. The DNI models evaluated were: the Direct Insolation Simulation Code (DISC), DIRINT, and DIRINDEX. On an annual solar insolation (e.g. kW h/m~2) basis, the accuracy of the DNI models at all three locations was within: 7% (DISC), 5% (DIRINT), and 3% (DIRINDEX). During the three highest electrical loading months at the three locations, the monthly accuracy varied from: 0% to 16% (DISC), 0% to 9% (DIRINT), and 0% to 8% (DIRINDEX). At one location different pyranometers were used to measure GHI, and the most expensive pyranometers did not improve the DNI model monthly accuracy. In lieu of actually measuring DNI, using the DIRINT model was felt to be sufficient for assessing whether to build a CSP plant at one location, but use of either the DIRINT or DIRINDEX models was felt to be marginal for the other two locations due to errors in modeling DNI for utility peak electrical loading days - especially for partly cloudy days.