Reliability of day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts on Reunion Island depending on synoptic wind and humidity conditions

摘要

Day ahead solar irradiance forecasting is essential to manage solar energy systems and assist decision-making. Available global and mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models show limitations for regions with high complex terrain in solar irradiance forecasts, due to the usual coarse resolution of the models and the difficulties in reproducing the correct physics (in terms of cloud evolution) at the correct moment. This is the case of Reunion Island (21 degrees S, 55.5 degrees E) a 60-km wide tropical island located in the Southwest of the Indian Ocean basin.