Intra-hour direct normal irradiance forecasting through adaptive clear-sky modelling and cloud tracking

摘要

Hybrid fossil-solar power cycles possess high solar-to-electric conversion efficiency and the potential to provide stable power output without the need for costly storage systems. However, the power output of the concentrating solar power (CSP) component of the plant can fluctuate in sync with intermittent direct normal irradiance (DNI). For hybrid plants, the controllable fossil-fuel unit can be used to compensate for shortfalls in CSP output during periods of light DNI intermittency or provide the entire plant output during periods of high DNI intermittency. This fossil-fuel unit requires 5-10 min to ramp its power output up or down to perform these balancing functions. Thus, by accurately predicting future DNI, and hence CSP output, the fossil-fuel unit can guarantee stable plant wide power output during periods of intermittency.