Estimation of the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude, m max

摘要

This paper provides a generic equation for the evaluation of the maximum earthquake magnitude m max for a given seismogenic zone or entire region. The equation is capable of generating solutions in different forms, depending on the assumptions of the statistical distribution model and/or the available information regarding past seismicity. It includes the cases (i) when earthquake magnitudes are distributed according to the doubly-truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation, (ii) when the empirical magnitude distribution deviates moderately from the Gutenberg-Richter relation, and (iii) when no specific type of magnitude distribution is assumed. Both synthetic, Monte-Carlo simulated seismic event catalogues, and actual data from Southern California, are used to demonstrate the procedures given for the evaluation of m max.