Information Flow, Trading Activity and Commodity Futures Volatility

摘要

Based on unique news data relating to gold and crude oil, we investigate how news volume and sentiment, shocks in trading activity, market depth and trader positions unrelated to information flow covary with realized volatility. Positive shocks to the rate of news arrival, and negative shocks to news sentiment exhibit the largest effects. After controlling for the level of news flow and cross-correlations, net trader positions play only a minor role. These findings are at odds with those of [Wang (2002a). The Journal of Futures Markets, 22, 427-450; Wang (2002b). The Financial Review, 37, 295-316], but are consistent with the previous literature which doesn't find a strong link between volatility and trader positions. (c) 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 36:88-104, 2016