Trajectories of Ecological Crises

摘要

According to the most widespread point of view, any ecological crisis represents only a decline and degradation process. However, a catastrophic result is only one of the probable scenarios. A crisis can terminate with successful restoration of equilibrium between society and nature, which can even accelerate social development. The aim of this work is to outline the causes of the crisis and describe various trajectories in the society-nature system related to the consumption of anthropogenic resources. For this purpose, the following procedures were undertaken: (1) analysis of the long-term dynamics in consumption of various resources and determination of equilibrium trajectory of the evolution of resource consumption; (2) elucidation of the causes making this trajectory unacceptable for society and leading to crisis; and (3) consideration of trajectories of particular ecological crises with different consequences.