Forecasting Analysis of Covid-19 and Current Status of Public Health Management in Pakistan

摘要

The global spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection from epicenter of Wuhan- china has also affected Pakistan. First 2 cases of COVID-19 were reported on 26 th February 2020 in Pakistan. The numbers of cases reported were very low initially for few days. However, from 15 th march 2020 the infection rate increased dramatically. Surprisingly the mortality rate between 15 th march and 5 th May 2020 remained very low, as compared to the rest of the world, especially USA. Based on incubation period of COVID-19 (normally from 2-14 days), mean of 5 days is approximately selected for onset of symptoms of any infected patients in this study. Also, the study is conducted on the basis of data available between 15 th March and 5 th May 2020. Moreover, R0 value (basic reproductive number) is further categorized into two cycles of infection. Daily Combined estimated number of patients in two cycles of infection and the total number of “daily reported confirm cases” are compared. Moreover our findings demonstrates the herd immunity to the 70% population in about 1300 days will result in deaths of nearly half a million people (0.28%) in the country based on “daily estimated number of actual cases” or 23 million deaths (2.33%) can occur, considering “the daily reported number of confirm cases” The margin of difference between the government reported daily confirm cases and “estimated daily actual cases” will determine the impact of counter health measures on this outbreak in Pakistan.