Spatiotemporal characteristics of elderly population’s traffic accidents in Seoul using space-time cube and space-time kernel density estimation

摘要

The purpose of this study is to analyze how the spatiotemporal characteristics of traffic accidents involving the elderly population in Seoul are changing by time period. We applied kernel density estimation and hotspot analyses to analyze the spatial characteristics of elderly people’s traffic accidents, and the space-time cube, emerging hotspot, and space-time kernel density estimation analyses to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics. In addition, we analyzed elderly people’s traffic accidents by dividing cases into those in which the drivers were elderly people and those in which elderly people were victims of traffic accidents, and used the traffic accidents data in Seoul for 2013 for analysis. The main findings were as follows: (1) the hotspots for elderly people’s traffic accidents differed according to whether they were drivers or victims. (2) The hourly analysis showed that the hotspots for elderly drivers’ traffic accidents are in specific areas north of the Han River during the period from morning to afternoon, whereas the hotspots for elderly victims are distributed over a wide area from daytime to evening. (3) Monthly analysis showed that the hotspots are weak during winter and summer, whereas they are strong in the hiking and climbing areas in Seoul during spring and fall. Further, elderly victims’ hotspots are more sporadic than elderly drivers’ hotspots. (4) The analysis for the entire period of 2013 indicates that traffic accidents involving elderly people are increasing in specific areas on the north side of the Han River. We expect the results of this study to aid in reducing the number of traffic accidents involving elderly people in the future.