International maritime organization (IMO) is developing the second generation of the intact stability regula-tions, three levels of criteria will be proposed for each stability failure mode. The first and second levels of vulnerability cri-teria for dead ship mode have now been completed, but the third level vulnerability criteria, direct assessment, has not yet been formed. Direct-assessment method is the important content of the second generation intact stability currently. Based on the draft of the second level of vulnerability criteria of the dead ship mode-proposed on first meeting of the IMO sub-com-mittee on ship design and construction (SDC1), using the mathematical model with one degree of freedom, the simulation programs of ship rolling in the beam wind and wave under extreme conditions are developed to calculate the ship-capsizing probability, the simulation results are compared with the model tests of the standard ship model CEHIPAR2792 to validate and evaluate the reliability of the numerical methods. Meanwhile, the references for the direct assessment method for this failure mode are provided to develop the method.%国际海事组织(IMO)在第二代完整稳性规则的制定中,针对每一种失效模式提出了3层薄弱性衡准.目前,瘫船稳性失效模式薄弱性衡准已经完成了第1、2层次的内容,第3层次直接评估方案还未形成.本文基于IMO船舶设计与构造分委会第一次会议(SDC1)提出的第2层薄弱性衡准草案中关于瘫船稳性的相关内容,采用单自由度横摇运动数学模型,编制数值计算程序,模拟船舶在极端恶劣条件下风浪联合作用的横摇运动,计算给定暴露时间船舶倾覆概率.将计算结果与CEHIPAR2792标准模型试验结果进行对比,验证并分析数值方法的可行性,为确定该失效模式的直接评估方法提供参考.
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