刘翔备战伦敦奥运会的科学化训练研究——分栏速度与全程成绩的离散灰色关联分析及模式训练途径

摘要

Every hurdle speed and total achievement in seven games of Liu Xiang were analyzed by using the methods of literature study and mathematical statistics. The main factors influencing the total achievement is found and the models of total achievement and every hurdle speed for Liu Xiang is established respectively. The result showed that the improvement of his total achievement is closely related with his final sprint as well as sixth and fourth hurdles. Gm （ 1, 1 ） models forecasts that his total achievement is 12. 86s.%运用文献资料法和数理统计法，对刘翔七次重大比赛的分段速度与全程成绩进行分析，找出了影响专项成绩的主要因素，分别建立了刘翔的专项成绩和分段成绩的预测模型。结果显示，其全程成绩与冲刺段、第6、4栏的分段速度关系最为密切；GM（1，1）模型对刘翔预测成绩为12．86S。