利用WITNESS仿真方法对生产过程建模并测定其产品生产周期的波动,可以得到以下结论,前一计划期生产波动会引起后一计划期生产以更加明显的波动,并且波动会沿着计划期阶段之间传递,并证实任务提前投产非但不能够获得预期的效果,反而很有可能会使情况变的更加糟糕,这非常有助于以后的提前期的测度与控制工作研究的开展.%Using WITNESS simulation model of the production process, the paper determines the volatility of product cycle and concludes as follows: the fluctuation in the first phase will generate more obvious fluctuation in the second phase, and fluctuations progressively transfer in the following phases; early production tasks will not only fail to achieve the desired production effect , but also make the situation worse, and lead to the uncertainty of measurement and control of cycle fluctuations, which provides a new insight.
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