经济增长与物流发展关系的实证研究——基于协整分析和状态空间模型

摘要

An empirical analysis is taken by using the data of GDP, logistics fixed assets investment, logistics and industrial structure in nearly 18 years. The results show that the four variables are co-integrated. Granger causality test shows there is only one-way output Granger causality between GDP, fixed assets investment and logistics; there is an upward trend in logistics fixed assets investment' flexibility for GDP.%采用近18年的GDP、物流固定资产投资、物流总产值和产业结构数据,进行实证分析,研究表明,四个变量存在长期均衡关系；Granger因果关系检验表明GDP、物流固定资产投资和物流总产值存在单向的Granger因果关系；GDP物流固定资产投资弹性成波动上升趋势.