产业技术创新战略联盟风险的模糊综合评估研究

摘要

Based on the risk identification of alliances,the article builds an index system of risk evaluation,which consists of two basic factors and fifteen indexes. The paper further explores the quantitative evaluation model of alliances risk. Ac-cording to risk probability,severity of consequence and controllable degree of the risk,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to evaluate the risk level of alliances. Entropy method is used in index weighting to avoid the subjectivity of weighting by experts. Based on the theoretical research,the paper also gives a numerical example.%在对联盟风险来源进行准确识别的基础上，构建由两个基本因素、15个指标组成的联盟风险评估指标体系，并进一步探讨联盟风险量化评估模型，应用模糊综合评价法，综合考虑风险概率、后果严重程度和可控程度三个方面，对联盟的风险水平做出评价。评估过程中指标赋权采用了客观赋权法中的熵权法，克服专家赋权的主观性。并在理论研究的基础上，给出算例分析。