Developing methodology and tools for integrated assessment of the risks of global environmental change: Analyzing uncertainty, risk assessment, risk perception, expert judgment, and a case study on sea level rise. Report of collaborative research, July 19

摘要

Members of Congress, federal administrators, state regulators, city planners, corporate strategists and private citizens face decisions that may or may not warrant considering the potential impacts of climate change. The extent to which the global warming issue will weigh in these many decisions will be determined by (a) expert scientific judgement about global warming and its potential impacts, (b) public perception of the global warming problem, (c) uncertainties, and (d) other legal and political factors controlling the entry of a large-scale environmental issue into many avenues of decision making. The complexity and uncertainty surrounding the problem of climate change present new challenges to our ability to formulate rational decisions. The authors provide a methodical approach to characterizing the risks of global warming in a way that will be useful to decision makers.