突发事件应急管理组织的Brusselator熵模型研究

摘要

应急管理组织作为突发事件应急管理的主体，其管理过程和运行状态对突发事件的处理效果具有关键性作用。基于管理熵和管理耗散结构理论，首先分析应急管理组织的正熵因素和负熵因素，并建立相应的正负熵流指标体系；然后应用熵值法量化应急管理组织系统正熵和负熵，借助Brusselator模型给出系统成为耗散结构的判据；最后实证分析模型的合理性，依据模型给出应急工作改进的建议。%Emergency management organization is the body of the emergency management,and its management process and running state play a key role in emergency treatment effect. Based on management entropy and management dissipative structure theory,this paper first analyzes the positive and negative entropy factors and establishes the corresponding index system of positive and negative entropy flows;then applies entropy value method to calculate the positive and negative entro-py of emergency management organization system. With the aid of Brusselator model,a criterion of the dissipative structure system is given. Finally,the rationality of the model is demonstrated and improvement suggestions based on model are giv-en.