基于灰色主成分的聚合物驱操作成本预测方法

摘要

Polymer flooding has characteristics of high oil production rate and short production duration,complicated operation cost change rule,and its operation cost structure and prediction method are different from water flooding.Scientific prediction of polymer flooding operation cost is essential to control the cost of operations and establish a cost plan.Combining with the characteristics of polymer flooding development,this paper applied gray system theory and principal component analysis method to select the influencing factors,and then established prediction model to predict polymer flooding operation cost.The practical application proves that this method can be used to predict polymer flooding operation cost better and achieve the purpose of improving the prediction accuracy.It can provide a scientific basis for the rational preparation of development planning program.%聚合物驱开发具有采油速度快、持续时间短、开采成本变化规律复杂等特点,其操作成本构成和预测方法与常规水驱有所不同。科学预测聚合物驱操作成本是有效控制油气操作成本、准确制定成本计划的关键。结合聚合物驱的开发特点,应用灰色系统理论和主成分分析方法给出了操作成本的影响因素,并建立了聚合物驱操作成本的预测模型。实例证明这一预测方法能较好地预测聚合物驱开发操作成本,达到提高预测精度的目的。