In order to determine the dependence direction of correlated failures in the reliability calculation of mechanical structural systems,a reliability variable determination model was established under a linear regression background according to properties of the linear dependent coefficient. Using the Copula regression function,the model was expanded to determine directions of correlated failures in the general asymmetrical structures. To verify its validity,the expanded model was applied to a locomotive axle to determine the correlated failure direction of wear failure and deformation failure of the axle. The calculated Skewness coefficients of wear loss and deformation were 2. 362 × 10 -6 and 9. 665 × 10 -33 respectively. The results indicate that the wear failure was the dominant mechanism, which is consistent with the actual failure form of the axle. This verifies the effectiveness of the model.%为判定机械结构系统可靠性工程中相关性失效的相依方向，在线性回归背景下，根据线性相关系数的特性，建立了可靠性变量判定模型．应用Copula回归函数，将该模型扩展到对一般非对称型相关结构可靠性的相关性失效方向判定，并应用于判定机车设备转轴的磨损失效和变形失效相关性失效方向，得到其磨损量偏度系数、变形量偏度系数分别为2．362×10-6和9．665×10-33．研究结果表明，磨损失效占有主导地位，与实际转轴的主要失效形式一致，验证了该模型的有效性．
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