基于系统动力学的客滚船航行安全仿真

摘要

To ensure the navigation safety of Ro-Ro passenger ships, based on the analysis on the factors influencing ship navigation safety, the cause and effect relationship diagram of Ro-Ro passenger ship navigation safety is drawn, and the simulation model of Ro-Ro passenger ship navigation safety is built by the Vensim-DSS.The navigation safety of a Ro-Ro passenger ship at Bohai Sea is simulated, and the effect of the increase of safety input on the ship navigation safety level is analyzed.The conclusions are the following: the navigation safety system of Ro-Ro passenger ships is a complex dynamic system, and the navigation risk is caused mainly by the crossing and coupling of 6 influencing factors which are human, goods, natural environment, traffic environment, facilities and management factors.The human, goods and natural environment have a significant effect on the ship navigation safety level.It can provide some reference for the research on risk management, prevention and control of the Ro-Ro passenger ship navigation safety.%为保障客滚船航行安全,在分析客滚船航行安全影响因素的基础上,构建客滚船航行安全因果关系图,并运用Vensim-DSS构建客滚船航行安全仿真模型.对渤海上的某一客滚船的航行安全进行仿真,分析安全投入增加对客滚船航行安全水平的影响,得出结论:客滚船航行安全系统是一个复杂的动态系统,其航行风险主要是由人、货物、自然环境、交通环境、硬件设施和管理等6个因素交叉耦合导致的,其中人、货物和自然环境对客滚船的航行安全水平影响显著.这可为客滚船航行安全风险管理及防控方面的研究提供参考.